(Check out the Awards Summary here )
FRONTRUNNERS
BLACK SWAN - good shot at 10 nominations and 1 win
INCEPTION - good shot at 10 nominations and 7 wins
TRUE GRIT - good shot at 10 nominations
THE KING'S SPEECH - good shot at 9 nominations and 1 win
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - good shot at 7 nominations and 4 wins
THE FIGHTER - good shot at 7 nominations and 2 wins
127 HOURS - good shot at 7 nominations
TOY STORY 3 - good shot at 6 nominations and 1 win
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT - good shot at 4 nominations
WINTER'S BONE - good shot at 3 nominations
MOST LIKELY TO GET EVEN STRONGER
Inception IF it receives at least one additional nomination in the acting categories
True Grit IF it receives a directing nomination and/or another acting nomination
The Social Network IF it receives unexpected technical nominations
The Fighter IF it receives a directing nomination and/or a lead actor nomination
Winter's Bone IF it receives a directing and/or an additional acting nomination
MOST LIKELY TO SURPRISE
The Town COULD suprise in several categories (picture, director etc.)
Shutter Island COULD suprise in several categories (picture, actor, editing etc.)
Another Year COULD surprise in two categories (picture, actress/s. actress)
How to train your dragon COULD surprise in two categories (picture, script)
Harry Potter VII COULD surprise in several categories including best picture
MOST LIKELY TO SHOCK
The Way Back COULD shock in several categories (picture, director etc.)
Rabbit Hole COULD shock in several categories (picture, screenplay, acting)
Never let me go COULD shock in several categories (picture, actress, score etc.)
Secretariat COULD shock in 2 categories (picture, actress)
Alice in Wonderland COULD shock in 2 categories (picture, actor /s. actor)
| PICTURE | TSN | TKS | BLACK SWAN | INCEPTION | THE FIGHTER |
| TRUE GRIT | 127 HOURS | TKAAR | TOY STORY 3 | WB |
| THE TOWN | THE WAY BACK | ANOTHER YEAR | SHUTTER I. | RABBIT HOLE |
| SECRETARIAT | BLUE V. | THE GHOST W. | NLMG | ALICE IN W. |
| DIRECTOR | FINCHER | ARONOFSKY | NOLAN | HOOPER | COENS |
| RUSSELL | BOYLE | AFFLECK | GRANIK | WEIR |
| LEAD ACTOR | FIRTH | FRANCO | EISENBERG | BRIDGES | GOSLING |
| DUVALL | WAHLBERG | DICAPRIO | BARDEM | ECKHART |
| LEAD ACTRESS | PORTMAN | BENING | LAWRENCE | KIDMAN | WILLIAMS |
| SWANK | RAPACE | HATHAWAY | MANVILLE | MULLIGAN |
| S. ACTOR | BALE | RUSH | RENNER | RUFFALO | GARFIELD |
| HAWKES | ROCKWELL | DAMON | HAMMER | HARRIS |
| S. ACTRESS | LEO | ADAMS | CARTER | STEINFELD | KUNIS |
| WEAVER | WIEST | COTILLARD | LEWIS | RYDER |
| A. SCREENPLAY | TSN | TOY STORY 3 | TRUE GRIT | WB | 127 HOURS |
| THE TOWN | RABBIT HOLE | HTTYD | TWB | NLMG |
| O. SCREENPLAY | INCEPTION | TKS | TKAAR | BLACK SWAN | ANOTHER Y. |
| THE FIGHTER | BLUE V. | BIUTIFUL | SOMEWHERE | HEREAFTER |
| O. SCORE | INCEPTION | 127 HOURS | HTTYD | TSN | TKS |
| NLMG | TOY STORY 3 | ALICE IN W. | HARRY POTTER | SHUTTER I. |
| O. SONG | TANGLED | BURLESQUE | WAITING FOR S. | COUNTRY S. | TOY STORY 3 |
| 127 HOURS | NARNIA 3 | ALICE IN W. | BURLESQUE | THE KARATE K. |
| CINEMATOGRAPHY | INCEPTION | TRUE GRIT | 127 HOURS | BLACK SWAN | THE FIGHTER |
| TKS | SHUTTER I. | HARRY POTTER | TWB | SECRETARIAT |
| EDITING | TSN | BLACK SWAN | INCEPTION | TRUE GRIT | THE FIGHTER |
| THE TOWN | 127 HOURS | TKS | SHUTTER I. | WB |
| ART DIRECTION | INCEPTION | BLACK SWAN | ALICE IN W. | TKS | TRUE GRIT |
| THE FIGHTER | HARRY POTTER | SHUTTER I. | SECRETARIAT | ROBIN HOOD |
| COSTUME DESIGN | ALICE IN W. | BLACK SWAN | TKS | TRUE GRIT | HARRY P. |
| NARNIA 3 | SHUTTER I. | SECRETARIAT | PRINCE OF P. | ROBIN HOOD |
| SOUND MIXING | INCEPTION | BLACK SWAN | HTTYD | 127 HOURS | TOY STORY 3 |
| THE TOWN | TRON | THE FIGHTER | IRON MAN 2 | SHUTTER I. |
| SOUND EDITING | INCEPTION | TRON | HTTYD | 127 HOURS | TOY STORY 3 |
| THE TOWN | TRON | THE FIGHTER | IRON MAN 2 | SHUTTER I. |
| VISUAL EFFECTS | INCEPTION | HARRY POTTER | ALICE IN W. | TRON | IRON MAN 2 |
| SCOTT PILGRIM | HEREAFTER |
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| MAKE-UP | ALICE IN W. | THE FIGHTER | TRUE GRIT |
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| THE WAY BACK | THE WOLFMAN | BARNEY'S V. | JONAH HEX |
|
| FOREIGN L. F. | MEXICO | FRANCE | THAILAND | DENMARK | CANADA |
| RUSSIA | GREECE | ITALY | TURKEY | PERU |
| DOCUMENTARY | WAITING FOR S. | THE TILLMAN S. | EXIT THROUGH | INSIDE JOB | RESTREPO |
| THE LOTTERY | CLIENT 9 | GASLAND | THIS WAY OF L. | WASTE LAND |
ANIMATED F. | TOY STORY 3 | HTTYD | TANGLED |
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| DESPICABLE ME | ILLUSIONIST | LEGEND OF G | IDIOTS AND A. | SHREK 4 |
UPDATE (January 3)
Considering True Grit's stunning Box Office-performance, I think it's safe to say, the film will be a more than viable threat in the end therefore I put the Coens' directing achievement in the top5. I took out Boyle though I still think Hooper is the one in danger. We'll see.
UPDATE (January 7)
I changed the visual effects category taking into account that the 7 finalists have been already announced.
UPDATE (January 10)
The make-up finalist have been announced, that narrowed down the category significantly plus I made minor changes in a few technical categories.
