OSCAR PREDICTIONS (updated on January 10)

(Check out the Awards Summary here )

FRONTRUNNERS

BLACK SWAN - good shot at 10 nominations and 1 win
INCEPTION - good shot at 10 nominations and 7 wins
TRUE GRIT - good shot at 10 nominations
THE KING'S SPEECH - good shot at 9 nominations and 1 win
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - good shot at 7 nominations and 4 wins
THE FIGHTER - good shot at 7 nominations and 2 wins
127 HOURS - good shot at 7 nominations
TOY STORY 3 - good shot at 6 nominations and 1 win
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT - good shot at 4 nominations
WINTER'S BONE - good shot at 3 nominations

MOST LIKELY TO GET EVEN STRONGER

Inception IF it receives at least one additional nomination in the acting categories
True Grit IF it receives a directing nomination and/or another acting nomination
The Social Network IF it receives unexpected technical nominations
The Fighter IF it receives a directing nomination and/or a lead actor nomination
Winter's Bone IF it receives a directing and/or  an additional acting nomination

MOST LIKELY TO SURPRISE

The Town COULD suprise in several categories (picture, director etc.)
Shutter Island COULD suprise in several categories (picture, actor, editing etc.)
Another Year COULD surprise in two categories (picture, actress/s. actress)
How to train your dragon COULD surprise in two categories (picture, script)
Harry Potter VII COULD surprise in several categories including best picture

MOST LIKELY TO SHOCK

The Way Back COULD shock in several categories (picture, director etc.)
Rabbit Hole COULD shock in several categories (picture, screenplay, acting)
Never let me go COULD shock in several categories (picture, actress, score etc.)
Secretariat COULD shock in 2 categories (picture, actress)
Alice in Wonderland COULD shock in 2 categories (picture, actor /s. actor)

PICTURE	TSN	TKS	BLACK SWAN	INCEPTION	THE FIGHTER
	TRUE GRIT	127 HOURS	TKAAR	TOY STORY 3	WB
	THE TOWN	THE WAY BACK	ANOTHER YEAR	SHUTTER I.	RABBIT HOLE
	SECRETARIAT	BLUE V.	THE GHOST W.	NLMG	ALICE IN W.
DIRECTOR	FINCHER	ARONOFSKY	NOLAN	HOOPER	COENS
	RUSSELL	BOYLE	AFFLECK	GRANIK	WEIR
LEAD ACTOR	FIRTH	FRANCO	EISENBERG	BRIDGES	GOSLING
	DUVALL	WAHLBERG	DICAPRIO	BARDEM	ECKHART
LEAD ACTRESS	PORTMAN	BENING	LAWRENCE	KIDMAN	WILLIAMS
	SWANK	RAPACE	HATHAWAY	MANVILLE	MULLIGAN
S. ACTOR	BALE	RUSH	RENNER	RUFFALO	GARFIELD
	HAWKES	ROCKWELL	DAMON	HAMMER	HARRIS
S. ACTRESS	LEO	ADAMS	CARTER	STEINFELD	KUNIS
	WEAVER	WIEST	COTILLARD	LEWIS	RYDER
A. SCREENPLAY	TSN	TOY STORY 3	TRUE GRIT	WB	127 HOURS
	THE TOWN	RABBIT HOLE	HTTYD	TWB	NLMG
O. SCREENPLAY	INCEPTION	TKS	TKAAR	BLACK SWAN	ANOTHER Y.
	THE FIGHTER	BLUE V.	BIUTIFUL	SOMEWHERE	HEREAFTER
O. SCORE	INCEPTION	127 HOURS	HTTYD	TSN	TKS
	NLMG	TOY STORY 3	ALICE IN W.	HARRY POTTER	SHUTTER I.
O. SONG	TANGLED	BURLESQUE	WAITING FOR S.	COUNTRY S.	TOY STORY 3
	127 HOURS	NARNIA 3	ALICE IN W.	BURLESQUE	THE KARATE K.
CINEMATOGRAPHY	INCEPTION	TRUE GRIT	127 HOURS	BLACK SWAN	THE FIGHTER
	TKS	SHUTTER I.	HARRY POTTER	TWB	SECRETARIAT
EDITING	TSN	BLACK SWAN	INCEPTION	TRUE GRIT	THE FIGHTER
	THE TOWN	127 HOURS	TKS	SHUTTER I.	WB
ART DIRECTION	INCEPTION	BLACK SWAN	ALICE IN W.	TKS	TRUE GRIT
	THE FIGHTER	HARRY POTTER	SHUTTER I.	SECRETARIAT	ROBIN HOOD
COSTUME DESIGN	ALICE IN W.	BLACK SWAN	TKS	TRUE GRIT	HARRY P.
	NARNIA 3	SHUTTER I.	SECRETARIAT	PRINCE OF P.	ROBIN HOOD
SOUND MIXING	INCEPTION	BLACK SWAN	HTTYD	127 HOURS	TOY STORY 3
	THE TOWN	TRON	THE FIGHTER	IRON MAN 2	SHUTTER I.
SOUND EDITING	INCEPTION	TRON	HTTYD	127 HOURS	TOY STORY 3
	THE TOWN	TRON	THE FIGHTER	IRON MAN 2	SHUTTER I.
VISUAL EFFECTS	INCEPTION	HARRY POTTER	ALICE IN W.	TRON	IRON MAN 2
	SCOTT PILGRIM	HEREAFTER
MAKE-UP	ALICE IN W.	THE FIGHTER	TRUE GRIT
	THE WAY BACK	THE WOLFMAN	BARNEY'S V.	JONAH HEX
FOREIGN L. F.	MEXICO	FRANCE	THAILAND	DENMARK	CANADA
	RUSSIA	GREECE	ITALY	TURKEY	PERU
DOCUMENTARY	WAITING FOR S.	THE TILLMAN S.	EXIT THROUGH	INSIDE JOB	RESTREPO
	THE LOTTERY	CLIENT 9	GASLAND	THIS WAY OF L.	WASTE LAND
ANIMATED F.	TOY STORY 3	HTTYD	TANGLED
	DESPICABLE ME	ILLUSIONIST	LEGEND OF G	IDIOTS AND A.	SHREK 4

UPDATE (January 3)
Considering True Grit's stunning Box Office-performance, I think it's safe to say, the film will be a more than viable threat in the end therefore I put the Coens' directing achievement in the top5. I took out Boyle though I still think Hooper is the one in danger. We'll see.

UPDATE (January 7)
I changed the visual effects category taking into account that the 7 finalists have been already announced. 

UPDATE (January 10)
The make-up finalist have been announced, that narrowed down the category significantly plus I made minor changes in a few technical categories.