AWARDS (updated on January 23)

	BEST PICTURE	BEST DIRECTOR	LEAD ACTOR	LEAD ACTRESS	SUPP. ACTOR	SUPP. ACTRESS	O. SCRIPT	A. SCRIPT
NBR	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	MANVILLE	BALE	WEAVER	BURIED	TSN
WASHINGTON	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	LAWRENCE	BALE	LEO	INCEPTION	TSN
BOSTON	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	PORTMAN	BALE	LEWIS	-	TSN
NEW YORK (O)	TSN	FINCHER	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	TSN
LOS ANGELES	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	HYE-JA	ARESTRUP	WEAVER	-	TSN
INDIANA	TSN	NOLAN	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	-	TSN
SOUTHEASTERN	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	RUSH	STEINFELD	TKS	TSN
NEW YORK	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	BENING	RUFFALO	LEO	TKAAR	-
SAN FRANCISCO	TSN	FINCHER ARONOFSKY	FIRTH	WILLIAMS	HAWKES	WEAVER	TKS	TSN
TORONTO	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	LAWRENCE	HAMMER	STEINFELD	-	TSN
SAN DIEGO	WB	ARONOFSKY	FARRELL	LAWRENCE	HAWKES	MANVILLE	FOURLIONS	TSN
LAS VEGAS	TSN	FINCHER	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	ADAMS	-	TSN
DETROIT	TSN	BOYLE	FIRTH	LAWRENCE	BALE	ADAMS	-	-
DALLAS	TSN	FINCHER	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	TSN
HOUSTON	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	-	TSN
FLORIDA	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	INCEPTION	TSN
ST. LOUIS	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	TKS	TSN
CHICAGO	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
AUSTIN	BS	ARONOFSKY	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	BS	TSN
OKLAHOMA	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	PORTMAN	BALE	KUNIS	INCEPTION	TSN
UTAH	TSN 127	FINCHER NOLAN	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	WEAVER	-	TSN
PHOENIX	TKS	NOLAN	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	INCEPTION	TSN
KANSAS	TSN	NOLAN	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
ONLINE	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
OHIO	INCEPTION	NOLAN	FRANCO	PORTMAN	RUSH	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
NSFC	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	MEZZOGIORNO	RUSH	O.WILLIAMS	-	TSN
NORTH TEXAS	INCEPTION	NOLAN	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	-
VANCOUVER	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	LAWRENCE	BALE	STEINFELD	-	TSN
IOWA	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	-
BFCA	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	TKS	TSN
HFPA	TSN TKAAR	FINCHER	FIRTH GIAMATTI	PORTMAN BENING	BALE	LEO		TSN
PGA	TKS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

(Check out my Oscar-predictions here )

BEST PICTURE

December 18

The Social Network has been sweeping BIG TIME. IF The King's Speech wins BAFTA and Black Swan or Inception gets the Golden Globe, we have a slightly more interesting race. If those two bp-awards go to TSN, as well, the race is basically over. The top5 will be probably The Social Network-The King's Speech-Black Swan-Inception-127 hours, though The Fighter could definitely give a hard time to 127 hours.

December 23

5 critics groups later it is still ' all quiet on the Western Front' : The Social Network is still superhero-strong, though Black Swan managed to sweep Austin and that put Aronofsky's latest in a VERY distant second place as far as early precursors go.

January 6

Though other top contenders like Winter's Bone, Black Swan, 127 hours and The King's Speech have all managed to score a best picture award, The Social Network is still pretty much untouchable.

January 23

WOW, the Producers (=PGA) surprised everybody. Though The Social Network is still the frontrunner, now we have a clear runner-up. The King's Speech is definitely getting stronger.

BEST DIRECTOR

December 18

David Fincher is the clear frontrunner, Aronofsky and Nolan are the potential spoilers. Could Hooper get the young British helmer-treatment a.k.a. 'The Joe Wright'  ? Translation : Best picure nod ? Yes. Best director nod ? No. I'm only mentioning this because The Fighter is getting stronger by the day and if the Academy wants to make room for David O. Russel, Boyle or Hooper has to go.

December 23

It is still Fincher's to lose, Aronofsky is the runner-up now because Hooper has failed to make any impact so far and Nolan's film missed the crucial SAG-love...why is that a serious problem for the director ? Because a lot of SAG-members are Academy voters, as well...and they are voting in EVERY category there, not just the acting ones...

January 6

Nobody came even close to Fincher's frontrunner status, though it seems the distant runner-up will be Nolan or Aronofsky in the end. It's worth mentioning that even if the Coen brothers have failed to win any best director awards, considering their film's universal acclaim and remarkably strong Box Office, they will probably make the Oscar top5.

January 23

Fincher...if he wins the DGA, as well, the best director-race is OVER. The fifth slot is the only interesting thing here : Russell, Coen, Boyle or a complete surprise (Scorsese, Weir, Leigh) ? By the way, the four locks are Fincher, Nolan, Aronofsky and Hooper.

BEST ACTOR

December 18

Colin Firth has not only won the most awards so far but he managed to score the 'trio' (New York-Los Angeles-Washington), as well. Franco and Eisenberg  are close behind. Based on this, we have 3 locks, the 4th and 5th slot will probably go to Jeff Bridges (True Grit) and Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), though in such a competitive year, anything could happen. I still wouldn't rule out DiCaprio and Bardem despite the lack of precursor-love.

December 23

The unviversal Firth-love continues, it is hard to imagine that anyone else could win Best Actor on February 27. In my opinion Franco is the only viable threat because Eisenberg only wins when his film sweeps, his performance hasn't proved to be able to stand on its own just yet :  so far he has only won,  when his film also won picture, director, screenplay...when The Social Network 'only' managed to win 2 of those crucial categories, Eisenberg went home emptyhanded...

January 6

Same old, same old......Firth is having a very 'Mirrenesque' year, unless he loses a big one (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe) - highly unlikely - he is the one to beat. Franco and Eisenberg are locks for the nominations, Bridges is a near-lock as well, meanwhile common wisdom says the 5th slot will come down to Gosling and Duvall......but I wouldn't count out a 'Tommy Lee Jones', either in that case Bardem and Dicaprio are the most likely 'shockers'.

January 23

Colin Firth has already won a bunch of critics awards (including the most important ones : New York, Los Angeles), he also scored the Critics Choice and Golden Globe and he will DEFINITELY win the BAFTA. Considering all this, SAG is happening, too. There are 3 locks (Firth, Franco, Eisenberg) and 2 near-locks (Bridges, Duvall), at the moment. Hopefully at least one of the Bardem-Gosling-DiCaprio trio will knock out one of the near-locks in the end.

BEST ACTRESS

December 18

Now this one is trickier : Natalie Portman has the most wins , but none of those are important wins. Lawrence is a close second , but the Oscar rarely goes to the breakthrough star. And then we have Annette Bening, who managed to win the crucial NYFCA Best Actress Award, but nothing else so far. She will win the Golden Globe, but these two awards alone don't guarantee an Oscar-win (Meryl Streep had these last year, too and we all know how it ended), she needs at least the BFCA and/or SAG to achieve frontrunner-status. Once again, we have 3 locks and a near-lock, Kidman. On paper the last slot will come down to Michelle Williams, Noomi Rapace and Hilary Swank, but for some reason I still believe Carey Mulligan can pull off an upset. Crazy hunch, I know.

December 23

Same old, same old....Portman is winning and she will probably keep on winning.

January 6

It has been a while since Natalie Portman lost a Best Actress trophy, so it is still hers to lose. Once again, the 5th slot is the most interesting part in the category considering Lawrence, Bening and Kidman are pretty much locks at the moment. IF the Oscar-SAG best actress lineups will be identical for the third consecutive year, the nomination will go to Hilary Swank. IF the considerable 'British Vote'  kicks in (the same thing that probably got Knightley's nomination and Atonement's bp-nod DESPITE the lack of Guild-love) , LesleyManville or Carey Mulligan could surprise. IF they are going with textbook-powerhouse performances, the 5th slot will come down to Michelle Williams and Noomi Rapace. For the record, Michelle Williams seems like the logical choice...

January 23

All about.....Natalie. Nobody came even close to her frontrunner-status.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

December 18

It is Bale's to lose, without a doubt. Who will get the other 4 slots ? Now that's the more interesting story here. Ruffalo failed to receive a Golden Globe-nod, though his film was otherwise loved by the HFPA and is the frontrunner in the comedy categories. Garfield failed to receive a SAG nomination, though his film is THE film of the Awards Season but in the end,the 3 supporting actor candidates (Garfield, Hammer, Timberlake) could cancel each other out. Internal competition is a remarkably damaging factor here. Meanwhile Bale and Rush are the only locks, with Jeremy Renner (The Town), Ruffalo and Hawkes close behind . Sam Rockwell is the potential spoiler, I truly hope he will get in.

December 23

Bale is Portman all over again...he is the clear frontrunner, nobody comes even close when it comes to the critics awards. Just to put it in perspective : Bale has won 14 awards so far, Hawkes won 2, the Rush-Ruffalo-Hammer Arestrup quartet won once...and on paper, Andrew Garfield is 'definitely' a top5 contender, too...

January 6

Well, it's enough to look at the chart...the most likely fellow nominees are Rush, Renner, Ruffalo, Hawkes though I firmly believe Andrew Garfield will get in I just don't know which one of the SAG-trio (Renner, Ruffalo, Hawkes) will lose his place to him in the end. I also think Sam Rockwell shouldn't be underestimated, especially if the Academy likes Conviction enough to nominate Swank...but of course despite the SAG-nomination, that's a big IF...

January 23

Bale...PERIOD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

December 18

Melissa Leo is the frontrunner, though internal competition is once again a problem and Amy Adams could actually emerge as a stronger contender once the bigger organizations (SAG-BFCA-GG) start announcing their winners.  The Fighter-duo and Helena Bonham Carter are basically locks, Hailee Steinfeld and Mila Kunis are emerging as potential 4th and 5th respectively. Jacki Weaver took a huge hit when she was snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild, making it virtually impossible for her to win the Oscar and even her nomination isn't a lock anymore considering her main competition (Steinfeld and Kunis) not only received the crucial SAG-nominations,but they can also rely on strong best picture contenders, too, a luxury, Weaver doesn't have. Lesley Manville and Julianne Moore could surprise, mainly becaus they are not campaigned in this category.

December 23

Considering the other 3 acting categories have clear frontrunners, the best supporting actress race is definitely the most interesting one : Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld won 6-6 awards BUT both are relatively unknown and Steinfeld is very young, too...and 'unknown' and 'young' are NOT the Academy's favourite words when it comes to acting winners. That's when someone like Amy Adams comes in the picture : she won 2 awards during the season, received all crucial nominations, has been nominated in the category twice already and is the biggest name here. Mila Kunis is getting stronger than any of us would have expected it : she has just won her first award for Black Swan and she also scored SAG-GG-BFCA nominations.

Meanwhile Jackie Weaver is fading : she missed the most important acting nomination of the Awards Season (SAG), she is relatively unknown and unlike the other 5 top contenders, (Helena Bonham Carter is the 5th)  she does NOT have a strong bp-contender to rely on.

January 6

Unexpected turns of events : we have a new frontrunner, Hailee Steinfeld. She not only has the most wins at the moment (though that's not what gives her the edge, Leo has almost as many awards as Steinfeld) BUT her film will be the biggest BO-hit in the category, it is also universally praised AND a damn strong bp-bd contender and since most of the main categories are already 'taken', Steinfeld's victory would be a nice way to award the film as a whole. Having said that, unless your name is Kate Winslet, you WILL get your first Oscar for the third time around, so Amy Adams is definitely a more than viable threat and I still think she will emerge as a stronger than expected contender once the bigger organizations start announcing. In her case, internal competition is the only damaging factor. On paper, Leo is a potential winner, too, meanwhile  the 4th and 5th slot will probably go to overshadowed performances in strong bp-contenders : Helena Bonham Carter and Mila Kunis. Unfortunately Jackie Weaver and Lesley Manville are fading big time...

January 23

Melissa Leo emerged as the frontrunner after winning BFCA and Golden Globe. The interesting thing here is that we had at least 3 best supporting actress-frontrunners to date this season : pre-precursors it was all about Helena Bonham Carter, THEN in early December it was Jackie Weaver, THEN she lost the SAG-nomination and it was suddenly Melissa Leo, THEN Hailee Steinfeld came along and started winning A LOT and now we are back to Leo again BUT she didn't  receive a BAFTA-nomination, though her co-star (Amy Adams) did, and now it it all down to the SAG and BAFTA...I think Amy Adams will win former and Helena Bonham Carter the latter. And if that happens, it will be pretty much ANYBODY's game.

BEST SCREENPLAY

December 18

Considering not every critics group has 2 screenplay categories, it would have been messy to list the winners above. What we know, that when there was only one category, The Social Network won with one exception (New York Film Critics) and when there were 2, The Social Network ALWAYS won best adapted screenplay. Sorkin pretty much has this in the bag, meanwhile  the original screenplay category will probably come down to Inception, The Kids are all right and The King's Speech.

December 23

All right it's time to separate the two screenplay categories and it's time to do a quick summary, as well: so far there has been 10 combined screenplay categories, Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) won 9 out of those 10, the 10th award - an important one (New York) - went to an original screenplay, 'The Kids are all right'.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

There were 10 adapted screenplay categories during the season, The Social Network won ALL 10 awards. Considering there are no other winners here, we can only assume that 127 hours, Winter’s Bone, Toy Story 3 and True Grit will be the other Oscar-nominees with The Town and Rabbit Hole as most likely spoilers and How to train your dragon, The Way Back and Never let me go as most likely shockers.

January 6

Once again, just take a look at the chart...the most likely fellow nominees are 127 hours, Toy Story 3,  True Grit, the battle for the 5th slot is between The Town and Winter's Bone.

January 23

The Social Network will win WITHOUT A DOUBT (look at the chart), the most likely fellow nominees are the same.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

There were 10 original screenplay categories during the season, Inception won 4, The King's Speech won 3 and Black Swan won 1. Four Lions and Buried also managed to win once, but neither seem to be strong enough contenders to register in the Oscar-race. Important fact that though 'The Kids are all right' failed to win an original screenplay category, it is the only film that won a combined one INSTEAD OF The Social Network. It was an important win, too (New York Film Critics). So our 4 locks are Inception, The King's Speech, Black Swan, The Kids are all right and the battle for the last slot will be probably between Another Year and The Fighter...though the Academy has to SERIOUSLY fall in love with The Fighter to snub Mike Leigh even in his regular screenplay-category..

January 6

Inception emerged as a decent frontrunner in this category (7 wins), though the final victory is still rather 'up in the air'...The King's Speech, The Kids are all right and maybe even Black Swan could definitely surprise. And to be honest, a Mike Leigh-win AT LAST wouldn't be that shocking, either....too bad that at the moment he seems to be losing even his nomination -  let alone the award -  to The Fighter.

January 23

This is probably the second most interesting category after supporting actress. So here's the deal : Inception has the most wins BUT it is a sci-fi and that's not exactly the Academy's (or WGA's) favourite word; The King's Speech could easily win BUT it was ineligible for WGA so it will definitely not win THE most important screenplay-precursor (though the PGA/ potential bp-victory definitely helps its case here); meanwhile The Kids are all right COULD win WGA since it is exactly the kind of quirky little 'indie comedy that the Academy LOVES to award in this category (Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Lost in Translation etc.). Meanwhile Black Swan and The Fighter will probably take the 4th and 5th slot. Another Year is the viable surprise (though not that much after the unexpected BAFTA-snub...could the American Academy love the British Leigh more than the British BAFTA ? geez, that would be very greek)

TECHNICAL CATEGORIES

December 18

We haven't seen the important Guild-nominations, so we don't know much about the technical categories, yet. What seems certain, that Inception and Black Swan will be the strongest best picture contenders here, though The King's Speech and True Grit are expected to pick up several technical nominations, as well.

December 23

We still haven't seen the crucial Guild-nominations concerning the technical categories.

The only important news is the semi-unexpected disqualification of several strong score-contenders like Black Swan, True Grit and The Fighter. This new development DEFINITELY stirred up the whole category making room for fading yet very deserving contenders like Rachel Portman (Never let me go) and John Powell (How to train your dragon).

January 6

The Art Directors DID announce their nominees but considering they have 15 and Oscar has only 5, it didn't really narrow down the race. We also have the visual effects finalists  but nothing unexpected there, either. Inception will probably win A LOT of technical categories and the Black Swan-True Grit-The King's Speech-127 hours-The Fighter quintet will receive several nominations, as well.

January 23

Now we have several Guild-nominations, so that should give a pretty decent picture about what to expect on Tuesday. Inception, Black Swan, True Grit, The King's Speech should be damn strong here, IF the Academy really loves The Social Network it could get a few slightly unexpected technical nominations (cinematography, sound), as well.